Sequential Prediction of Social Media Popularity with Deep Temporal Context Networks

Prediction of popularity has profound impact for social media, since it offers opportunities to reveal individual preference and public attention from evolutionary social systems. Previous research, although achieves promising results, neglects one distinctive characteristic of social data, i.e., sequentiality. For example, the popularity of online content is generated over time with sequential post streams of social media. To investigate the sequential prediction of popularity, we propose a novel prediction framework called Deep Temporal Context Networks (DTCN) by incorporating both temporal context and temporal attention into account. Our DTCN contains three main components, from embedding, learning to predicting. With a joint embedding network, we obtain a unified deep representation of multi-modal user-post data in a common embedding space. Then, based on the embedded data sequence over time, temporal context learning attempts to recurrently learn two adaptive temporal contexts for sequential popularity. Finally, a novel temporal attention is designed to predict new popularity (the popularity of a new user-post pair) with temporal coherence across multiple time-scales. Experiments on our released image dataset with about 600K Flickr photos demonstrate that DTCN outperforms state-of-the-art deep prediction algorithms, with an average of 21.51% relative performance improvement in the popularity prediction (Spearman Ranking Correlation).Comment: accepted in IJCAI-1

Bilinear Graph Neural Network with Neighbor Interactions

Graph Neural Network (GNN) is a powerful model to learn representations and make predictions on graph data. Existing efforts on GNN have largely defined the graph convolution as a weighted sum of the features of the connected nodes to form the representation of the target node. Nevertheless, the operation of weighted sum assumes the neighbor nodes are independent of each other, and ignores the possible interactions between them. When such interactions exist, such as the co-occurrence of two neighbor nodes is a strong signal of the target node's characteristics, existing GNN models may fail to capture the signal. In this work, we argue the importance of modeling the interactions between neighbor nodes in GNN. We propose a new graph convolution operator, which augments the weighted sum with pairwise interactions of the representations of neighbor nodes. We term this framework as Bilinear Graph Neural Network (BGNN), which improves GNN representation ability with bilinear interactions between neighbor nodes. In particular, we specify two BGNN models named BGCN and BGAT, based on the well-known GCN and GAT, respectively. Empirical results on three public benchmarks of semi-supervised node classification verify the effectiveness of BGNN -- BGCN (BGAT) outperforms GCN (GAT) by 1.6% (1.5%) in classification accuracy.Codes are available at: https://github.com/zhuhm1996/bgnn.Comment: Accepted by IJCAI 2020. SOLE copyright holder is IJCAI (International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence), all rights reserve

HDIdx: High-Dimensional Indexing for Efficient Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search

Fast Nearest Neighbor (NN) search is a fundamental challenge in large-scale data processing and analytics, particularly for analyzing multimedia contents which are often of high dimensionality. Instead of using exact NN search, extensive research efforts have been focusing on approximate NN search algorithms. In this work, we present "HDIdx", an efficient high-dimensional indexing library for fast approximate NN search, which is open-source and written in Python. It offers a family of state-of-the-art algorithms that convert input high-dimensional vectors into compact binary codes, making them very efficient and scalable for NN search with very low space complexity

How to Retrain Recommender System? A Sequential Meta-Learning Method

Practical recommender systems need be periodically retrained to refresh the model with new interaction data. To pursue high model fidelity, it is usually desirable to retrain the model on both historical and new data, since it can account for both long-term and short-term user preference. However, a full model retraining could be very time-consuming and memory-costly, especially when the scale of historical data is large. In this work, we study the model retraining mechanism for recommender systems, a topic of high practical values but has been relatively little explored in the research community. Our first belief is that retraining the model on historical data is unnecessary, since the model has been trained on it before. Nevertheless, normal training on new data only may easily cause overfitting and forgetting issues, since the new data is of a smaller scale and contains fewer information on long-term user preference. To address this dilemma, we propose a new training method, aiming to abandon the historical data during retraining through learning to transfer the past training experience. Specifically, we design a neural network-based transfer component, which transforms the old model to a new model that is tailored for future recommendations. To learn the transfer component well, we optimize the "future performance" -- i.e., the recommendation accuracy evaluated in the next time period. Our Sequential Meta-Learning(SML) method offers a general training paradigm that is applicable to any differentiable model. We demonstrate SML on matrix factorization and conduct experiments on two real-world datasets. Empirical results show that SML not only achieves significant speed-up, but also outperforms the full model retraining in recommendation accuracy, validating the effectiveness of our proposals. We release our codes at: https://github.com/zyang1580/SML.Comment: Appear in SIGIR 202

Maintaining the validity of inference from linear mixed models in stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials under misspecified random-effects structures

Linear mixed models are commonly used in analyzing stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs). A key consideration for analyzing a SW-CRT is accounting for the potentially complex correlation structure, which can be achieved by specifying a random effects structure. Common random effects structures for a SW-CRT include random intercept, random cluster-by-period, and discrete-time decay. Recently, more complex structures, such as the random intervention structure, have been proposed. In practice, specifying appropriate random effects can be challenging. Robust variance estimators (RVE) may be applied to linear mixed models to provide consistent estimators of standard errors of fixed effect parameters in the presence of random-effects misspecification. However, there has been no empirical investigation of RVE for SW-CRT. In this paper, we first review five RVEs (both standard and small-sample bias-corrected RVEs) that are available for linear mixed models. We then describe a comprehensive simulation study to examine the performance of these RVEs for SW-CRTs with a continuous outcome under different data generators. For each data generator, we investigate whether the use of a RVE with either the random intercept model or the random cluster-by-period model is sufficient to provide valid statistical inference for fixed effect parameters, when these working models are subject to misspecification. Our results indicate that the random intercept and random cluster-by-period models with RVEs performed similarly. The CR3 RVE estimator, coupled with the number of clusters minus two degrees of freedom correction, consistently gave the best coverage results, but could be slightly anti-conservative when the number of clusters was below 16. We summarize the implications of our results for linear mixed model analysis of SW-CRTs in practice.Comment: Correct figure legend and table Typo